Changes in Distilled Spirits Sales and Preferences During COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: COVID-19 and the associated policies created a large shift in alcohol sales. A change in availability and consumer preferences caused a shift from wholesale to retail sales in many areas. This study estimates the magnitude of the changes in wholesale and retail sales, and the persistence of these changes. METHOD: Highly detailed sales data are used to analyze trends in distilled spirts sales during the COVID-19 pandemic in the state of Idaho. A total of 810,000 unique observations that cover 58 types of distilled spirts are used in a regression analysis to find the determinants of distilled spirts sales. RESULTS: In March 2020, there was a 27.2% increase in sales compared with the previous March because of a 42.3% increase in retail sales and a 41.1% decrease in wholesale sales. Increased sales continued until August 2020. The regression analysis shows changes in demand during 2020 varied by the type of distilled spirits; demand increased more for distilled spirts types with higher ethanol early in March 2020, but from April to July demand increased more for expensive distilled spirts with a lower ethanol level. CONCLUSIONS: Examination of the types of distilled spirts purchased during the early stages of the pandemic shows us that consumers bought different types of distilled spirts for various characteristics, such as price and ethanol level. We find that consumers initially purchased cheap distilled spirts with high alcohol content. By August, distilled spirts sales were similar to previous years. These results will be useful to policymakers in determining the effects of distilled spirts restrictions.

Changes in Distilled Spirits Sales and Preferences During COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: COVID-19 and the associated policies created a large shift in alcohol sales. A change in availability and consumer preferences caused a shift from wholesale to retail sales in many areas. This study estimates the magnitude of the changes in wholesale and retail sales, and the persistence of these changes. METHOD: Highly detailed sales data are used to analyze trends in distilled spirts sales during the COVID-19 pandemic in the state of Idaho. A total of 810,000 unique observations that cover 58 types of distilled spirts are used in a regression analysis to find the determinants of distilled spirts sales. RESULTS: In March 2020, there was a 27.2% increase in sales compared with the previous March because of a 42.3% increase in retail sales and a 41.1% decrease in wholesale sales. Increased sales continued until August 2020. The regression analysis shows changes in demand during 2020 varied by the type of distilled spirits; demand increased more for distilled spirts types with higher ethanol early in March 2020, but from April to July demand increased more for expensive distilled spirts with a lower ethanol level. CONCLUSIONS: Examination of the types of distilled spirts purchased during the early stages of the pandemic shows us that consumers bought different types of distilled spirts for various characteristics, such as price and ethanol level. We find that consumers initially purchased cheap distilled spirts with high alcohol content. By August, distilled spirts sales were similar to previous years. These results will be useful to policymakers in determining the effects of distilled spirts restrictions.

Demand Shocks and Supply Chain Resilience: An Agent Based Modelling Approach and Application to the Potato Supply Chain

The food supply chain has experienced major disruptions from both demand and supply sides during the Covid-19 pandemic. While some consequences such as food waste are directly caused by the disruption due to supply chain inefficiency, others are indirectly caused by a change in consumer’s preferences. As a result, evaluating food supply chain resilience is a difficult task. With an attempt to understand impacts of demand on the food supply chain, we developed an agent-based model based on the case of Idaho’s potato supply chain. Results showed that not only the magnitude but also the timing of the demand shock will have different impacts on various stakeholders of the supply chain. Our contribution to the literature is two-fold. First, the model helps explain why food waste and shortages may occur with dramatic shifts in consumer demand. Second, this paper provides a new angle on evaluating the various mitigation strategies and policy responses to disruptions beyond Covid-19.